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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although experts believe the party is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, opponents and experts argue that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations could take several months, political observers suggest that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a inclusive alliance led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.